Global, regional, and national sex-specific burden and control of the HIV epidemic, 1990-2019, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019

Background: The sustainable development goals (SDGs) aim to end HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. Understanding the current state of the HIV epidemic and its change over time is essential to this effort. This study assesses the current sex-specific HIV burden in 204 countries and territories and measures progress in the control of the epidemic. Methods: To estimate age-specific and sex-specific trends in 48 of 204 countries, we extended the Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model to also implement the spectrum paediatric model. We used this model in cases where age and sex specific HIV-seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care-clinic sentinel surveillance data were available. For the remaining 156 of 204 locations, we developed a cohort-incidence bias adjustment to derive incidence as a function of cause-of-death data from vital registration systems. The incidence was input to a custom Spectrum model. To assess progress, we measured the percentage change in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 (threshold >75% decline), the ratio of incident cases to number of people living with HIV (incidence-to-prevalence ratio threshold <0·03), and the ratio of incident cases to deaths (incidence-to-mortality ratio threshold <1·0). Findings: In 2019, there were 36·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 35·1–38·9) people living with HIV worldwide. There were 0·84 males (95% UI 0·78–0·91) per female living with HIV in 2019, 0·99 male infections (0·91–1·10) for every female infection, and 1·02 male deaths (0·95–1·10) per female death. Global progress in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 was driven by sub-Saharan Africa (with a 28·52% decrease in incident cases, 95% UI 19·58–35·43, and a 39·66% decrease in deaths, 36·49–42·36). Elsewhere, the incidence remained stable or increased, whereas deaths generally decreased. In 2019, the global incidence-to-prevalence ratio was 0·05 (95% UI 0·05–0·06) and the global incidence-to-mortality ratio was 1·94 (1·76–2·12). No regions met suggested thresholds for progress. Interpretation: Sub-Saharan Africa had both the highest HIV burden and the greatest progress between 1990 and 2019. The number of incident cases and deaths in males and females approached parity in 2019, although there remained more females with HIV than males with HIV. Globally, the HIV epidemic is far from the UNAIDS benchmarks on progress metrics. Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH

Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017 : results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Correction:Background Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries. Methods We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Findings In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505). Interpretation Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.Peer reviewe

Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019 : a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Ending the global tobacco epidemic is a defining challenge in global health. Timely and comprehensive estimates of the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden are needed to guide tobacco control efforts nationally and globally. Methods We estimated the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden for 204 countries and territories, by age and sex, from 1990 to 2019 as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. We modelled multiple smoking-related indicators from 3625 nationally representative surveys. We completed systematic reviews and did Bayesian meta-regressions for 36 causally linked health outcomes to estimate non-linear dose-response risk curves for current and former smokers. We used a direct estimation approach to estimate attributable burden, providing more comprehensive estimates of the health effects of smoking than previously available. Findings Globally in 2019, 1.14 billion (95% uncertainty interval 1.13-1.16) individuals were current smokers, who consumed 7.41 trillion (7.11-7.74) cigarette-equivalents of tobacco in 2019. Although prevalence of smoking had decreased significantly since 1990 among both males (27.5% [26. 5-28.5] reduction) and females (37.7% [35.4-39.9] reduction) aged 15 years and older, population growth has led to a significant increase in the total number of smokers from 0.99 billion (0.98-1.00) in 1990. Globally in 2019, smoking tobacco use accounted for 7.69 million (7.16-8.20) deaths and 200 million (185-214) disability-adjusted life-years, and was the leading risk factor for death among males (20.2% [19.3-21.1] of male deaths). 6.68 million [86.9%] of 7.69 million deaths attributable to smoking tobacco use were among current smokers. Interpretation In the absence of intervention, the annual toll of 7.69 million deaths and 200 million disability-adjusted life-years attributable to smoking will increase over the coming decades. Substantial progress in reducing the prevalence of smoking tobacco use has been observed in countries from all regions and at all stages of development, but a large implementation gap remains for tobacco control. Countries have a dear and urgent opportunity to pass strong, evidence-based policies to accelerate reductions in the prevalence of smoking and reap massive health benefits for their citizens. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

The Impact of Peer Educators or Community Health Workers on the Progress of the UNAIDS 90-90-90 Targets in Africa: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Protocol

Background: Africa is far behind from achieving the Joint United Nations Program on HIV and AIDS (UNAIDS) 90-90-90 targets. Evidence shows that the participation of HIV patients as peer educators and other community health workers is substantially improving the entire HIV care continuum and subsequently the UNAIDS targets. This review aims to provide the best available evidence on the impact of peer educators and/or community health workers for the three targets in Africa. Methods: We will include cohort and experimental studies published in English between 2003 and 2020. Studies which reported interventions for HIV diagnosis, initiation of ART, or virological suppression will be included for review. Three steps searching will be conducted: (i) initial search across Google Scholar, (ii) full search strategy across five databases: MEDLINE, PubMed, CINAHL, SCOPUS and Web of Science, and (iii) screening titles and abstracts. Data will be extracted using standardized instruments from the Joanna Briggs Institute Meta-Analysis of Statistics Assessment and Review Instrument (JBI-MAStARI) and analyzed through narrative synthesis, and meta-analyses and regression. Heterogeneity among quantitative studies will be assessed using Cochran Q test and Higgins I2. Ethics: A formal ethical approval will not be required as primary data will not be collected

Antimicrobial use in paediatric patients in a teaching hospital in Ethiopia.

Antibiotics use in in children are different from adults due to a lack of data on pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics, efficacy and safety of drugs, different physiological spectrum, pediatrics populations being vulnerable to the majority of the illnesses, and the adverse effect of their irrational use is more serious. However, antibiotic use is not explored much in a paediatric population. The current study focused on antibiotic use among pediatric population using data from a tertiary hospital in Ethiopia.A retrospective cross-sectional study collated data from 614 pediatrics patients admitted in pediatrics ward at Jimma University Teaching Hospital, Southwest Ethiopia. Descriptive analyses were performed to describe the type and pattern of antibiotics. The number of prescriptions per a patient was also compared with the WHO standard. Data analysis was carried out using SPSS version 20 for mackintosh.Antimicrobials were prescribed for 407(86.4%) patients of which 85.9% were in the form of injectables. A total of 1241 (90%) medicines were administered parenterally followed by oral 110 (8%). The maximum number of medicines per prescription was eight for all types of drugs in general, and five for antimicrobials in particular. All antimicrobials were prescribed empirically without any microbiological evidence. Pneumonia, sepsis and meningitis were the main reasons for antimicrobial use in the ward. Out of the total of 812 antibiotics prescribed; Penicillin G crystalline was the most (20%) frequently prescribed, followed by gentamicin (19%) and ampicillin (16).Majority of the prescribed antibiotics were antimicrobials, and was in the form of injectables. Antimicrobials were over prescribed and the number of drugs per prescription was also far from WHO recommendation. Strict prescribing standard guidelines and treatment habits should be developed in the country, to prevent antimicrobial resistance

Demographic and clinical characteristics of study participants.

<p>Demographic and clinical characteristics of study participants.</p

The percentage of prescribed Antibiotics in Pediatric Ward of Jimma University Teaching Hospital, Southwest Ethiopia.

<p>The percentage of prescribed Antibiotics in Pediatric Ward of Jimma University Teaching Hospital, Southwest Ethiopia.</p

Pattern of antimicrobial use by different age groups.

<p>Pattern of antimicrobial use by different age groups.</p